Summary of Working Paper No. 121-1998

Simulation Study Work Package 2 “Natural Conditions along the Selected Routes”

By S. Brestkin, A. Yulin, V. Karklin, I. Ashik, Z. Gudkovich, I. Karelin, S. Klyachkin, E. Makarov, E. Dapershtein, I. Sergeeva, V. Smolyanitsky, K. Teitelbaum and S. Frolov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St.Petersburg, Russia.

The project aims to describe the natural conditions along two routes of transit navigation selected in the INSROP Simulation Study’s Work Package 1 (Working Paper No. 108 - 1998). The description will be used for modeling the motion of ships in ice.

Modeling will be performed by running a model of K. Riska (Working Paper No. 66 - 1996), which envisages input of mean monthly (mean seasonal) values of 18 environmental parameters.

The parameters were estimated for 20-mile segments over the period 25 to 40 years by means of calculations on the basis of available data at the AARI permitted for international exchange. In connection with the absence of the calculation methods for some parameters, these methods were developed within the framework of the Project.

The Report consists of three main sections. The first section presents a general description of ice conditions in the Arctic Seas during different seasons of the year. The second section contains an analysis of the influence of different factors on the ship motion speed in ice and a classification of parameters of Riska’s model into primary and secondary. The third section describes the initial data used and the methods of calculating the parameters.