Summary of Working Paper No. 139-1999

Simulation Study Work Package 3 “Potential Cargo Flow Analysis & Economic Evaluation for the Simulation Study”

By N. Isakov, A. Yakovlev and A. Nikulin, Central Marine Research and Design Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia; and G. Serebryansky and T. Patrakova, Far Eastern Marine Research, Design and Technology Institute, Vladivostok, Russia.

The Following items are analyzed and presented in the project:

Current Russian Export – Import to and from the Far East by the use of waterborne transport through Suez. Analysis the potential shift to the NSR of current Russian cargoes through Suez.

Prospects of transportation development to the NSR from Western (including Kola Peninsula, Archangel Oblast and Nenets AO, West Siberian Region, Taimyr and Yamal – Nenets AO) and Eastern (including Sacha – Yakutia Republic and Chukotka AO) regions of the Russian Arctic;

Potential of transit transportation along the NSR from Far Eastern Russian regions (including Kamchatka, Sakhalin) regarding fertilizers, fish and others;

Suggestions to the development of transportation systems and improvement of efficiency of Arctic transportation in the main selected directions.

The report concludes that the concerning ferrous metals, chemical and mineral fertilizers, the NSR can potentially take over considerable parts of the transport presently going through Suez.

The report also concludes that there is a considerable potential for export of hydrocarbons and timber from NW Russia.

The export of minerals from the eastern part of the Russian Arctic is less probable in the short term, but can be developed provided that other NSR cargo flows are already generated. In a longer term, oil and gas from the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas are also possible, as well as apatite transport from Khatanga.