Summary of Working Paper No. 36-1996

I.6.1: Operational Tools. Volume 2 - 1994 project work.

By Zalman M. Gudkovich and Igor D. Karelin et al., Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia.

The project aims at developing a comprehensive system of meteorological, oceanographic and ice forecasts on the basis of existing and updated methods for addressing objectives of planning of operational management of transit shipping along the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

In the area of long range meteorological forecasting a macrocirculation method was improved with regard to taking into account the influence of circulation epochs on the character of natural processes in the specific years. The practice of taking into account the stages of circulation epochs in forecasting has resulted in recent years in a more justified prediction of expected atmospheric processes.

For forecasts up to 1 month in advance an oscillation hydrodynamic model for detailed forecasting of pressure fields taking into account stationary and non stationary components of atmospheric processes was successfully used. Hopefully such forecasts will be used for support of traffic planning along the NSR.

Additional studies of the processes influencing sea level were carried out and an algorithm for a single probabilistic statistical scheme for forecasting dangerous sea level changes in the regions, restricting shipping, was obtained. Practical tests of prognostic equations for some points of the Arctic Seas gave positive results.

Computer software for searching informative predictors for an automated forecasting system was constructed for ice physical statistical general purpose forecasts 24 months in advance. The success of this forecasting method is quite high.

In the course of improving a local genetic method of ice distribution with a 10 day interval an automated ice information visualization block for the Kara Sea was developed. Using it, a database was created for ice concentration in this sea for 10 day intervals in the years from 1940 to 1994.

For the same region a numerical method for forecasting distribution of concentration, thickness, drift velocity fields 1 8 days in advance with a spatial resolution of 25 km was improved. A great deal of attention was given to automated preparation of initial hydrometeorological information and presentation of the calculated results

in the form suitable for practical use.

A positive result was obtained in developing a system of specialized ice forecasts due to improved estimates of spatial temporal variability of ice operating characteristics of navigation conditions in the western region of the NSR. Methodological principles and the structure of a general database on ice navigation conditions were suggested and a possibility for forecasting an optimal navigation variant was shown.

As conclusive remarks to the report the scientific challenges important for further improvements were considered.