Summary of Working Paper No. 10-1995
I.6.1: Operational Tools.
Summary by supervisor Dr. Zalman Gudkovic, the Arctic and Antarctic Research
Institute, Russia
The submitted report presents an overview of the methods of meteorological,
oceanographic and ice forecasting (for general as well as specialized purposes)
at different periods in advance which are used for the scientific-operational
support of navigation along the NSR. The basis of the different methods has been
considered, initial and current information used is listed, the forms of
forecast presentation and evaluation of the quality of methods are described.
Moreover, the report is not confined to the traditional methods that have been
in use for many years, but includes some alternative methods which require
careful verification and further improvement.
On the whole, the materials considered provide an understanding of the
scientific-operational system for support of shipping along the NSR which has been in
process of formation over a period of many years. It helps to plan quite
effectively cargo flows, distribution of transport means and icebreakers, beginning
at the preliminary planning stage, and gradually making the information more
detailed as the approach of the dates of the specific operations comes closer.
Thus long-range forecasts provide information about the expected background of
ice conditions along the main segments of the route. Medium-range forecasts
indicate any change in weather conditions and ice distribution during the
navigation and help to work out the recommendations for the dates of the beginning and
end of voyages in local regions. The forecasts of expected meteorological,
oceanographic and ice conditions 1 - 10 days in advance during specific operations
assist navigators in selecting an optimal variant of the route, determine the
motion speed of ships and convoys along each of its segments.
The report also outlines main directions for improving each of the links of
the prognostic system.
The report has been reviewed by Dr. Torgny Vinje (Norwegian Polar Institute,
Oslo) and will soon be published as an INSROP Working Paper.