Summary of Working Paper No. 137-1999

III.01.5 The Cargo Generating Potential of the Angaro-Yenisei Region for the Northern Sea Route

By M.K. Bandman, V.V. Vorobieva, T.N. Yesikova, V.D. Ionova and B.V. Robinson, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Novosibirsk, Russia.

The research is done within the framework of the "International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) - Programme code III.01.5. The presented study allowed us to draw the following principal conclusions concerning the cargo generating potential of the "Yenisei - NSR" transport system in the perspective 2005 2015

1. AYR possesses the necessary conditions to provide cargo for the transport system.

2. The scale and direction of potential AYR development are conditional of the economic situation in the country.

3. Extended use of the Yenisei part of the NSR is of national significance for solving both immediate and future problems concerning resource supply.

4. Even the evolutionary scenario, being realized, makes it possible to regain the volume of operations achieved by the system in the late 1980s.

5. Realization of the radical scenario requires modernization of the system and a very intensive functioning already by 2005.

6. The plans according to maximal scenario freightage may be realized only if the NSR is transformed into the NEP with the highest level of logistics.

7. The main and most realistic scenario is considered to be the radical one with an optimistic situation.

The obtained results may be considered as conditional or preliminary ones in considerable confidential intervals. They correspond to a certain economic situation in Russia and to the hypothesis of AYR development. The authors aimed to find out the maximal amount of existing prognoses concerned with cargo generation for NSR. In the next stage the presumed cargo volume is to be refined. It will most probably decrease. It may also happen that some of the cargo generation conditions, as well as those of "Yenisei - NSR" transport system exploitation, will turn out to be less favorable.