Summary of Working Paper No. 32 - 1996
I.2.2: Evaluation of the Northern Sea Route Using the Ice Regime Shipping
Control System.
By Douglas L. Hagen, Norland Science and Engineering, and Stephen J. Jones,
National Research Council of Canada.
The object of this research was to assess the feasibility of using the
Northern Sea Route as a regular commercial trade route between Japan and Europe, using
the Canadian Ice Regime Shipping Control System (IRSCS).
Under the IRSCS each ice type is given a weighting relative to each type and
class of ice strengthened vessel. When an ice type is deemed too severe for the
construction standard specified for that type or class of vessel, that ice type
is considered hazardous, and is given a negative weighting. One then takes the
sum of the products of each ice type weighting, times the amount of ice that
is present in tenths, to arrive at a decision numeral. If the decision numeral
is zero or positive the vessel can proceed, but if the decision numeral is
negative the vessel must stop. In this way it is possible to determine the minimum
ice class of vessel that is required to transit the entire route in zero or
positive decision numerals. The decision numeral is modified for ridged ice or for
brash, or decayed, ice.
Our objective was reached, therefore, by assessing several different data sets
and published reports describing ice conditions along the NSR, comparing them
to the various classes and types of ice strengthened vessels, and hence
determining the minimum ice class a vessel would need to possess in order to make the
transit safely.
The four conclusions of this work are summarized as:
1. The minimum ship class that would be allowed passage through the Northern Sea
Route under the IRSCS has been determined. The resulting minimum ice class of
vessel that would be required by the proposed Canadian Arctic Shipping Pollution
Prevention Regulations
2. Analysis of the various data sources available for this project clearly
identified the eastern portion of the Northern Sea Route, particularly just west of
Wrangel Island, as the potentially most difficult area. In this area in 1987 and
1988 a CAC 2/1 vessel would have been required all year.
3. The need for icebreaker escort to conduct regular transits of the Northern Sea
Route by a low ice class cargo ship is clearly apparent in the data analysed
in this project.
4. The Ice Regime Shipping Control System appears to be a reasonable method of
controlling shipping in the Russian Arctic.
CAC 2/1 - required 8 times
CAC 3 - 5 times
CAC 4 - 1 time
Type A - 1 time and
Type E - 1 time