Summary of Working Paper No. 55-1995
III.06.1: Survey of Logistics Models. Part 2: The Methodology of Simulative
Modelling of Transport and Ice Breaker Fleets Operations in the Arctic.
By Anatoly Schelkanov and Yury Kelberg, Central Marine Research and Design
Institute (CNIIMF), St. Petersburg, Russia
In the project a review of most important logistic models for using in INSROP
and condition of their information supply are represented. The models for
solving following tasks are shown in most detailed way:
1. Determination of efficiency of ship employment on particular transport lines
and routes.
2. Substantiation of cargo ships requirements.
3. Complex substantiation of transport process effectiveness of cargo
transportation in the Arctic.
In the future report suggestions of using logistic models in other projects of
INSROP and of creation on this basis of a constant computer- information
analytical system are made.
For practical introduction of the above mentioned system necessary
reguirements and metodology of realization on personal computers a set of tasks of
simulative modelling of transport and ice-breakers' fleet performance in the Arctic
have been elaborated in the project.
The necessity of employing this mathematical apparatus is connected wilh the
fact that transportation process in the Arctic basin is beeing performed in
complexity of interaction of transport vessels of different types, ice-breakers'
fleet and ports against the background of a variety of natural conditions, which
causes great risks when adopting management, organisational and investment
decisions during the development of transport in the Arctic.
The metodology of simulative modelling has been elaborated on the basis of the
following concepcion:
At the second stage of INSROP further work at the project seems expedient to
be aimed at the creation of a special computer information analytical system
concerning the Arctic. For this purpose it is necessary to elaborate:
The employment of the simulation model must be performed on personal computers
of higher power, forming databases for carrying out concrete calculation by
involving the results of research from other INSROP projects.
The aim of this computer modelling is accumulation, processing and output of
economic and operational indices concerning the whole system and/or separate
objects under given definite version of technical supply and transportation
process.
Certain vessels and ice-breakers which a user is interested in considering
writing off, renovation, planned repairs, lease or time-charter and berths as well
could serve as separate objects of the simulative model.
Vessels might be received from outside as input flows of definite structure to
be ice-breaker supported and handled, in order to render the model more
adequate.
The aim of modelling of port operation is to reveal on influence of the
handling dynamics on indices of fleet operation.
To evaluate accuracy of the results, computer visualization of the
transportation process could include analysis of casual factors influence on duration of
some operations (code time in the ice, loading, dischargingc).
Vessel traffic-control and regulation of ice-breaker escort and port operation
are carried out through modelling algorithm starting from appointed version of
transportations & vessels allocation.
composition and structure of providing the realisation of simulative model on
personal computers;
the programme facilities for maintenance of databases, simulation of transport
process and getting ready the necessary outcoming information while estimating
the effeciency of INSROP projects.