Summary of Working Paper No. 55-1995

III.06.1: Survey of Logistics Models. Part 2: The Methodology of Simulative Modelling of Transport and Ice Breaker Fleets Operations in the Arctic.

By Anatoly Schelkanov and Yury Kelberg, Central Marine Research and Design Institute (CNIIMF), St. Petersburg, Russia

In the project a review of most important logistic models for using in INSROP and condition of their information supply are represented. The models for solving following tasks are shown in most detailed way:

1. Determination of efficiency of ship employment on particular transport lines and routes.

2. Substantiation of cargo ships requirements.

3. Complex substantiation of transport process effectiveness of cargo transportation in the Arctic.

In the future report suggestions of using logistic models in other projects of INSROP and of creation on this basis of a constant computer- information analytical system are made.

For practical introduction of the above mentioned system necessary reguirements and metodology of realization on personal computers a set of tasks of simulative modelling of transport and ice-breakers' fleet performance in the Arctic have been elaborated in the project.

The necessity of employing this mathematical apparatus is connected wilh the fact that transportation process in the Arctic basin is beeing performed in complexity of interaction of transport vessels of different types, ice-breakers' fleet and ports against the background of a variety of natural conditions, which causes great risks when adopting management, organisational and investment decisions during the development of transport in the Arctic.

The metodology of simulative modelling has been elaborated on the basis of the following concepcion:

INSROP00090000.gif The aim of this computer modelling is accumulation, processing and output of economic and operational indices concerning the whole system and/or separate objects under given definite version of technical supply and transportation process.

INSROP00090000.gif Certain vessels and ice-breakers which a user is interested in considering writing off, renovation, planned repairs, lease or time-charter and berths as well could serve as separate objects of the simulative model.

INSROP00090000.gif Vessels might be received from outside as input flows of definite structure to be ice-breaker supported and handled, in order to render the model more adequate.

INSROP00090000.gif The aim of modelling of port operation is to reveal on influence of the handling dynamics on indices of fleet operation.

INSROP00090000.gif To evaluate accuracy of the results, computer visualization of the transportation process could include analysis of casual factors influence on duration of some operations (code time in the ice, loading, dischargingc).

INSROP00090000.gif Vessel traffic-control and regulation of ice-breaker escort and port operation are carried out through modelling algorithm starting from appointed version of transportations & vessels allocation.

At the second stage of INSROP further work at the project seems expedient to be aimed at the creation of a special computer information analytical system concerning the Arctic. For this purpose it is necessary to elaborate:

INSROP00090000.gif composition and structure of providing the realisation of simulative model on personal computers;

INSROP00090000.gif the programme facilities for maintenance of databases, simulation of transport process and getting ready the necessary outcoming information while estimating the effeciency of INSROP projects.

The employment of the simulation model must be performed on personal computers of higher power, forming databases for carrying out concrete calculation by involving the results of research from other INSROP projects.