Developing Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenarios
The Kyoto Protocol under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an important first step in the development of a truly global climate regime. However, even though it has entered into force, the regime is different from what was originally assumed. The USA has opted out and currently shows no signs of returning. For future negotiations, views are sharply divided between, and among, developed and developing countries on the issue of burden-sharing. While the Protocol scheduled another negotiation round beginning from 2005 to set further targets beyond 2012, some countries have started looking to develop alternatives to the current framework, particularly as some of the world's largest emitters refuse to engage in the Kyoto process.

Up to now, little work has focused on developing regime scenarios that could serve as a pragmatic basis for post-Kyoto negotiations that were set to begin in 2005. In this project, four scenarios have been developed with the view of describing how the future of the global climate regime may evolve. The scenarios range from a deepening of the Kyoto framework to new regimes with multiple treaties. The project has also conducted in-depth studies on the wide range of alternative futures presented. This is meant to provide a platform for policy makers to debate how the future climate regime may be designed

The project has been conducted as a truly global effort, in cooperation with key researchers from Europe, Japan, China, Canada, and the USA. A series of workshops have been held to provide feedback to the scenarios and interaction with policy makers and stakeholders in different regions of the world.
The project's partner institutes are:
  • Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industries (CRIEPI), Japan
  • The Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI), Norway
  • Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA), Germany
  • Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), China
Funding has been provided by CRIEPI and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The project has been endorsed by the International Human Dimension Programme/Institutional Dimension of Global Environmental change (IHDP/IDGEC).
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