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Scenarios for the Development of Barents Russia

The purpose of this project is to produce a set of possible scenarios for development in the Russian part of the Barents Region until 2015. The ten past years have brought historic changes in Russia and in the relations between Russia and the neighbouring countries. Yet, the 10-15 coming years may bring even more profound changes.

It has always been a challenge for decision-makers and observers to understand and predict developments in Russia – and “Barents Russia” is no exception. Decision-makers and the public at large would benefit from a deeper understanding of the driving forces for change and how important actors may respond, and this is the motivation for carrying out this scenario project.

The project uses well-proven future foresight methodology to construct a set of thought-provoking scenarios about developments in Barents Russia towards 2015 – In the first part of the project various thematic sub-reports are worked out, focusing on status and important trends. FNI's contributions are mainly in the field of oil and gas development, the environment and fisheries. In the second phase the scenarios are constructed, based on the various sub-reports.

Project leader: Arild Moe

Project period: 2003-2004


Brunstad, Bjørn, Eivind Magnus, Philip Swanson, Geir Hønneland and Indra Øverland, Big Oil Playground, Russian Bear Preserve or European Periphery? The Russian Barents Sea Region towards 2015. EBURON Academic Publishers, October 2004. 218 p.

Moe, Arild, Oil Transportation through the Barents Sea. Project Barents Russia 2015 - Working Paper 11. Oslo, Econ Analysis, 2004. 11 p.

Hønneland, Geir, Jørgen Holten Jørgensen and Morten Bremer Mærli, The environment of Barents Russia: driving forces and key actors. Project Barents Russia 2015 - Working Paper. Oslo, ECON Analysis, 2004, 36 p.

Moe, Arild, Offshore Activities in the Russian Barents Sea. Project Barents Russia 2015 - Working Paper 10. Oslo, Econ Analysis, 2004, 40 p.
 Related focal points of research:

   Arctic and Russian politics

Project funding:

   Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
   Norwegian Ministry of Trade and Industry
   Norwegian Ministry of Oil and Energy
   Norsk Hydro

 External cooperation partners:

   Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI)
   Wikborg & Rein

Related FNI document:

   Nordområdeforskning ved FNI ('FNI's Research on the High North'). Presentation brochure in Norwegian (PDF , 0.6 Mb)

Fridtjof Nansen Institute
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