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Russian and Caspian Energy Developments and Their Implications for Norway and Norwegian Actors (RUSSCASP)

RUSSCASPThis research programme will expand the understanding of the long-term outlook for three issue clusters of strategic relevance for Norway:
1. Russia and the Caspian region as arenas for foreign energy companies.
2. Driving forces and conditions for Russian and Caspian energy exports.
3. Energy developments in the High North.

These issues will be revisited repeatedly throughout the programme. But to understand and forecast developments in these issues we need to address more fundamental tendencies. In our previous research, we have identified three recurrent energy themes in Russian and Caspian politics:
1. Control of the oil and gas industries and revenue streams.
2. Concern for the energy balance.
3. The link between energy and foreign policy.

These concerns, the way they will be addressed by Russia and the Caspian states, and the factors and driving forces that will influence their relative focus and interpretation, are at the centre of this programme.

The project is organized as a consortium with FNI, NUPI and Econ Pöyry as main partners.


Project leader: Arild Moe

Project period: 2008-2013


Kryukov, Valeriy and Arild Moe, 'Oil Industry Structure and Developments in the Resource Base: Increasing Contradictions?' In Jakub M Godzimirski (ed), Russian Energy in a Changing World: What is the Outlook for the Hydrocarbons Superpower? Farnham, Ashgate, 2013, pp. 35-56.

Kryukov, Valeriy and Arild Moe, 'The Russian Oil Sector'. In Michael Alexeev and Shlomo Weber (eds), The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy. New York, Oxford University Press, 2013, pp. 341-362.

Kryukov, Valeriy and Arild Moe, 'The Russian Gas Sector'. In Michael Alexeev and Shlomo Weber (eds), The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy. New York, Oxford University Press, 2013, pp. 363-382.

Gabriel, Steven A., Arild Moe, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Marina Tsygankova, 'The Likelihood and Potential Implications of a Natural Gas Cartel'. In Roger Fouquet (ed), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change. Cheltenham (UK), Edward Elgar, 2013, pp. 86-102.

Bergsager, Henrik, China, Russia and Central Asia: The energy dilemma. FNI Report 16/2012. Lysaker, FNI, 2012, 20 p.

Moe, Arild, 'Po tonkomu l'du' ('On Thin Ice'), Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 13.12.2011. In Russian.

Moe, Arild, Daniel Fjærtoft and Indra Øverland, 'Space and Timing: 'Why was the Barents Sea Delimitation Dispute Resolved in 2010?' Polar Geography, Vol 34, No 3, 2011, pp. 145-162.

Moe, Arild, 'Energeticheskie strategii Rossii i Norvegii v Barentsevom more' ('Russian and Norwegian Energy Strategies in the Barents Sea'). In N.A. Simoniya (ed), Arktika - Interesy Rossii: Energetika, Ekologiya. Moscow, EkoPolitika, 2011, pp. 71-104. In Russian.

Moe, Arild, 'Russian and Norwegian Petroleum Strategies in the Barents Sea'. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, Vol 1, No 2, 2010, pp. 225-248.

Moe, Arild and Anne-Kristin Jørgensen, 'Delelinja – er alt nå på stell?' ('The Delimitation Line – Is Everything Now in Order?'), Nordlys, 07.12.2010. In Norwegian.

Daniel Buikema Fjærtoft and Arild Moe, The Barents Sea Delimitation Agreement: Explanations and Implications. RUSSCASP Working Paper, October 2010, 27 p. (Access restricted)

Moe, Arild, 'Russisk rulett' ('Russian Roulette'). In Arbo, Peter and Bjørn Hersoug (eds), Oljevirksomhetens inntog i nord: Næringsutvikling, politikk og samfunn. Oslo, Gyldendal Akademisk, 2010, pp. 282-304. In Norwegian.

Røland, Tonje Hulbak, Associated Petroleum Gas in Russia: Reasons for Non-utilization. FNI Report 13/2010. Lysaker, FNI, 2010, 53 p.

Moe, Arild and Valery Kryukov, 'Oil Exploration in Russia: Prospects for Reforming a Crucial Sector'. Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol 51, No 3, 2010, pp. 312-329.

Kjærnet, Heidi, 'The State Oil Company SOCAR: A Microcosm of Azerbaijani Development?', Caucasus Analytical Digest, No 16, April 2010, pp. 5-8.

Moe, Arild, 'Shtokman – fortsatt interessant' ('Shtokman – Still of Interest'), Nordlys, 29.03.2010. In Norwegian.

Johansen, Roger, Russland - En elefant i glassmagasinet? Russiske gassrelasjoner med Ukraina ('Russia - an Elephant in the China Shop? Russian Gas Relations with Ukraine'). FNI Report 12/2009. Lysaker, FNI, 2009, 84 p. In Norwegian.

Moe, Arild, 'Sjtokman – hva skjer?' ('Shtokman – What is Happening?'), Nordlys, 24 July 2009. In Norwegian.

Moe, Arild and Elana Wilson Rowe, 'Northern Offshore Oil and Gas Resources: Policy Challenges and Approaches'. In Wilson Rowe, Elana (ed), Russia and the North. Ottawa, University of Ottawa Press, 2009, pp. 107-128.

Johansen, Roger, 'Russland med Gazprom i hånd' ('Gazprom as a Political Weapon?'), Nordlys, 28 May 2009. In Norwegian.

Arild Moe and Elana Wilson Rowe, Northern Offshore Oil and Gas Resources: Russian Policy Challenges and Approaches. RUSSCASP Working Paper, June 2008, 21 p.

Arild Moe, Status of Legislation for Foreign Investment in the Russian Petroleum Sector and on the Continental Shelf. RUSSCASP Research Note, 22 April 2008.

Moe, Arild, 'Think of Russia as an asset, not a risk', Parliamentary Brief, Vol 11, No 12, 22 July 2008.

Many more publications on the RUSSCASP Website
 Related focal points of research:

   Arctic and Russian politics
   European energy and environmental politics

Project funding:

   Research Council of Norway (PETROSAM program)

 Main external cooperation partners:

   Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI)
   Econ Pöyry

Recent media coverage:

'Fedynskyhøyden: Her kan Norge måtte dele gassen med Russland' ('The Fedynsky High: This Is Where Norway May Have to Share Gas with Russia'), Teknisk Ukeblad, 13.11.2013. In Norwegian.

'Granitsa v Barentsevom more: zhazhda nefti ni pri chyom' ('The Barents Sea Border Has Nothing to Do with Oil Thirst'), Neft' Rossii, 13.08.2013. In Russian.

'Oil hunger not reason for Barents treaty', BarentsObserver, 12.08.2013.

'Spiller stormaktene mot hverandre' ('Plays Great Powers out Against Each Other'), Aftenposten, 08.12.2012. In Norwegian.

'Proverka forumom' ('Test Forum'),, 04.06.2012. In Russian.

'Amnesty criticises Statoil over Rosneft deal', Aftenbladet, 14.05.2012.

'Statoil får Rosneft-kritikk' ('Statoil Criticized over Rosneft Deal'), Aftenbladet, 14.05.2012. In Norwegian.

'Ekspert udivlen tem chto Fedinskoye i Tsentral'no-Berentsevskoye mestorozhdeniya poluchila "ENI", a ne "Statoil"' ('Expert surprised that ENI and not Statoil got Fedinskoye and Central-Barents fields'),, 11.05.2012. In Russian.

'Questions Rise over Big Oil Deal', Views and News from Norway, 09.05.2012.

'- Statoil får de minst attraktive delene' ('- Statoil Gets the Least Attractive Parts'), Dagens Næringsliv, 08.05.2012. In Norwegian.

'Statoils gigantavtale med Rosneft: - Ugunstige og risikable forhold' ('Statoil's Giant Agreement with Rosneft: - Unfavourable and Risky Conditions'), Teknisk Ukeblad, 08.05.2012. In Norwegian.

'- Det er gigantiske leteområder med et gigantisk potensial' ('- Gigantic Acreage with a Gigantic Potential'), E24, 07.05.2012. In Norwegian.

Arild Moe: 'Én måned til Shtokman-deadline' ('One Month until Shtokman Deadline'), Teknisk Ukeblad, 09.11.2011. In Norwegian.

'Lukoil eyes ex-disputed area', BarentsNova, 20.09.2011.

'Statoils risikojeger' (Statoil's Risk Hunter'), Budstikka, 07.09.2011. In Norwegian.

'Ingen Barents-aktivitet før 2013' ('No Barents Activity until 2013'), Teknisk Ukeblad, 15.06.2011. In Norwegian.

'Bez ostanovki' ('Without Stop'),, 18.04.2011. In Russian.

'V tovarischakh soglase est' ('Agreement among comrades'),, 18.04.2011. In Russian.

'- Statoil vil slite med å tjene penger på Stockman' ('- Statoil Will Have a Hard Time Earning Money on Shtokman'), E24, 03.04.2011. In Norwegian.

'Avviser nok en Shtokman-utsettelse' ('Statoil Denies another Shtokman Postponement'), Teknisk Ukeblad, 22.02.2011. In Norwegian.

'Der 9-Billionen-Dollar-Schatz unter dem Eis' ('The 9-Billion Dollar Treasure Under the Ice'), Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung, 20.01.2011. In German.

'Russians want access to Norwegian oil', Barents Observer, 04.01.2011.

'Russerne vil inn i norsk olje' ('The Russians Want to Participate in Norwegian Petroleum Production'), Teknisk Ukeblad, 03.01.2011. In Norwegian.

'Vil sikre Europa eigen gass' ('Will Provide Europe with Its Own Gas'),, 14.10.2010. In Norwegian.

'Missiya vipolnima' ('Mission Possible'),, 06.09.2010. In Russian.

'LNG på Shtokman forblir en drøm' ('Shtokman LNG Remains a Dream'), Dagens Næringsliv, 09.08.2010. In Norwegian.

'Energiforsker: Tøffere for Russlands naboer' ('Energy Researcher: Tougher Times Ahead for Russia's Neighbours'), Research Council of Norway News, 23.06.2010. In Norwegian.

'Olje kan ha skapt enighet' ('Oil May Have Led to Agreement'), Dagsavisen, 28.04.2010. In Norwegian.

'Tror på utbygging om 15 år' ('Believes in Petroleum Development in 15 Years'), Finnmark Dagblad, 27.04.2010. In Norwegian.

'Åpner for mulig olje-bonanza' ('Will Open up for a Possible Oil Bonanza'), Dagens Næringsliv, 27.04.2010. In Norwegian.

'- Er trolig enorme gassressurser der' ('- The Areas Probably Contain Vast Gas Resources'), Dagbladet, 27.04.2010. In Norwegian.

'Europa trenger gass fra Sibir' ('Europe Needs Siberian Gas'),, 29.03.2010. In Norwegian.

'Svart gull i aust' ('Black Gold in the East'), Research Council of Norway News, 11.01.2010. In Norwegian.

'Neppe stor fart på russisk sokkel' ('Russian Shelf Probably Not to Be Developed Quickly'), NTB, 16 August 2009. In Norwegian.

'Lærer av Telenors Russland-mareritt' ('Learning from Telenor's Russia Nightmare'), Dagsavisen, 22 July 2009. In Norwegian.

'Nye ressursanslag for Barentshavet fra US Geological Survey' ('New Resource Estimates for The Barents Sea from USGS'), (web radio), Verdt å vite - NRK P2, 29 May 2009. In Norwegian.

'Norja epäilee Shtokmanin maakaasukentän toteutumista' ('Norway Doubts Whether Shtokman Gas Field Will Materialise'). Teknikka & Talous, 4 March 2009. In Finnish.

'Gasskonflikt mellom Russland og Ukraina' ('The Gas Conflict between Russia and the Ukraine') (web radio), NRK Dagsnytt 18, 2 January 2009. In Norwegian.

'Mnogofaktornaya stoimost mestorozhdeniy' ('The Multifactored Value of Fields'), NG Energiya, 9 December 2008. In Russian.

'Sjtokman-prisen eksploderer' ('The Price of Shtokman Explodes'), Teknisk Ukeblad, 24 October 2008. In Norwegian.

'- Risky to Invest in Russia', Barents Observer, 26 August 2008.

'StatoilHydro-interesse for Jamal' ('StatoilHydro Interested in Yamal'), Teknisk Ukeblad, 20 August 2008. In Norwegian.

'Gir Gazprom og Rosneft enerett' ('Russia Gives Gazprom and Rosneft Exclusive Rights to Offshore Resources'), Dagens Næringsliv, 17 April 2008. In Norwegian.

'Avdramatiserer om Shtokman' ('Playing down Shtokman Investment Worries'), Økonomisk Rapport, 4 April 2008. In Norwegian

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