Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the resulting Western sanctions have reshaped global energy markets, making China Russia’s primary strategic and economic partner. While China has absorbed a significant share of Russia’s redirected fossil fuel exports, the long-term trajectory of this energy relationship remains uncertain. A growing asymmetry in favor of China, coupled with Beijing’s ongoing efforts to diversify its energy imports, raises critical questions about Russia’s economic dependency and the durability of their energy partnership.

At the same time, China’s climate policy is evolving. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is expected to include updated emissions targets, reinforcing China’s commitment to decarbonization—an approach that contrasts sharply with Russia’s climate delay tactics. This seminar will explore whether there is potential for genuine climate cooperation between the two countries or if Russia will succeed in its attempts to build a non-Western climate coalition to limit the impacts of global decarbonization on its fossil fuel sectors.

Finally, the seminar will assess the broader implications for Europe. How can Europe maintain momentum for its clean energy transition while balancing energy security and affordability in an increasingly multipolar world?

This event will bring together leading researchers, policymakers, and experts to analyze the key dynamics shaping Sino-Russian energy and climate relations and their global consequences.
 

Program

09:45 – 10:00 Welcome and coffee

10:00 – 11:15 Sino-Russian Energy Trade – Developments and Prospects

Speakers:

• Tatiana Lanshina, Independent Expert
• Yue Wang, Doctoral Researcher, Tampere University
• Anna Korppoo, Research Professor, Fridtjof Nansen Institute

Key topics:

• How has Sino-Russian fossil fuel trade evolved since the onset of the Ukraine war?
• To what extent has China replaced Western markets for Russian energy exports?
• What are the prospects for Russia-China fossil fuel trade in the short and long term?
• How do Russian and Chinese trade objectives and expectations align, and where do they diverge?
• How could developments related to the Ukraine war—sanctions, ceasefire negotiations—impact bilateral energy relations?
• What are the risks and strategic implications for Europe’s energy transition?

11:15 – 11:45 Break

11:45 – 13:00 China’s Climate Policy and a Possible Non-Western Climate Coalition

Speakers:

• Gørild Heggelund, Research Professor, Fridtjof Nansen Institute
• Iselin Stensdal, Senior Researcher, Fridtjof Nansen Institute
• Anna Korppoo, Research Professor, Fridtjof Nansen Institute

Key topics:

• What are the key trends in China’s climate policy and governance?
• How will China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) shape its domestic and international climate strategies?
• What impact will China’s climate policies have on Russia’s fossil fuel sectors?
• Are there areas of genuine climate cooperation between China and Russia?
• What are the prospects for a non-Western climate coalition involving China, Russia, and other states?
• How should Europe respond to these developments in terms of policy and international climate cooperation?

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

Guided Tour of Polhøgda

Participants are invited to a tour of Polhøgda, the home of Fridtjof Nansen, where science, history, and diplomacy come together.

This seminar offers a research-based analysis of the evolving energy relationship between China and Russia and its global significance.

Organizers: Fridtjof Nansen Institute and Climate Strategies.