A new report from the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI) explores how Greenland is pushing to lead the Kingdom of Denmark into a new Arctic era. Is Greenland prepared to take the reins, or will geopolitical realities set limits?

Geopolitical Tensions Reshape the Arctic

In recent years, the Arctic has become a more strategic arena in the global power struggle, with increasing military activity and resource competition from major powers like Russia and China. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Arctic Council was temporarily put on hold, and the future of this vital forum remains uncertain. Russia represents nearly half of the Arctic, and, as FNI senior researcher Svein Vigeland Rottem explains, 'there is no Arctic Council without Russia.'  

'Greenland has a unique opportunity, not only to demand greater influence but to actually take the lead in the Arctic. This could mark a pivotal shift in the Kingdom’s Arctic strategy,' says Christian Prip.

'Geopolitical tensions in the Arctic have never been higher, and the Arctic Council faces an uncertain future. This is the complex environment in which Greenland seeks to play a more central role,' says Christian Prip, report author and senior researcher at FNI.

Greenland Amplifies its Self-Governance Ambitions

Greenland, with a population of just 56,000, has worked towards increased autonomy for decades, and many Greenlandic politicians view independence as a long-term goal. In 2009, Greenland achieved significant autonomy through the Self-Government Act, but Denmark still handles foreign and defence policy. Now, Greenland sees a unique opportunity to assume leadership in the Arctic Council.  

'Greenland has a unique opportunity, not only to demand greater influence but to actually take the lead in the Arctic. This could mark a pivotal shift in the Kingdom’s Arctic strategy,' says Prip.

Rottem believes that Greenland’s ambitions challenge a long-standing power balance within the Kingdom of Denmark.  

'This is not only a question of who leads, but also of how Greenland will handle the diplomatic challenges of chairing the Council. Norway’s transition of the chairship in 2023 was a diplomatic masterpiece, and Greenland will need similar skill,' says Rottem.

Greenland as the Leading Voice in the Arctic: A New Era

Arctic policy has long been dominated by major powers, but Greenland’s ambitions to lead the Arctic Council could mark a considerable shift. The FNI report highlights how Greenland, with its deep connection to the Inuit people and exceptional experience with Arctic climate challenges, sees itself as the region’s most natural representative.  

'With its lived experience of a rapidly changing climate, Greenland is the voice the Arctic needs in global climate debates,' Prip argues.
 

Can Greenland Handle the Pressure?

Although Greenland has significant ambitions, it cannot manage the Arctic Council chairmanship alone. The report shows that Greenland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has limited resources compared to Denmark’s established diplomatic network.

'Greenland will need Denmark’s support to navigate this complex landscape. It’s a major challenge for a small diplomatic service,' says Prip.

Rottem emphasises that a successful chairship will also require close cooperation within the Kingdom and with other Arctic states.  

'While progress has been made in negotiations, important details remain to be clarified to ensure a smooth transition. There is also scope for Greenland to exchange experiences with Norway on how best to ensure the Arctic Council’s survival,' says Rottem.

Sources:

• Denmark or Greenland in the Arctic Council chair?

  Christian Prip. FNI Report 5/2024. Lysaker, FNI, 2024, 8 p. 

• How and why the Arctic Council survived until now – an analysis of the transition in chairship between Russia and Norway

  Serafima Andreeva and Svein Vigeland Rottem. The Polar Journal, Vol 13, No 2, 2024, pp. 1-18.

Factbox: What is the Arctic Council? 

The Arctic Council is an international forum for cooperation between the eight Arctic states (Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Russia, the United States, and Canada) and Indigenous organisations. The Council focuses on environmental protection, sustainable development, and cooperation in the Arctic, playing a key role in addressing climate change and regional challenges. 

Factbox: What is the Kingdom of Denmark  

The Kingdom of Denmark consists of three parts: Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands. Greenland and the Faroe Islands have their own governments and manage most of their domestic affairs, while Denmark handles foreign, defence, and security policy for the Kingdom. Greenland and the Faroe Islands still have influence on issues that affect them, especially in the Arctic.