Russia’s LNG ambitions hit by sanctions – risks losing global market window
A new report from the Fridtjof Nansen Institute shows how Western sanctions have left Russia’s flagship LNG projects stranded. Without access to markets and shipping, Russia may lose its chance to secure a major role in the booming global LNG market.
Russia’s long-standing ambition to become a major force in liquefied natural gas (LNG) is now in deep trouble. A new report from the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, The Outlook for Russian LNG, finds that Western sanctions are blocking the industry’s expansion and could cause Russia to miss its chance in the rapidly growing global LNG market.
The report highlights the Arctic LNG-2 project as a key example: production has started, but the gas cannot be sold due to sweeping US and EU sanctions targeting technology, finance and shipping. At the same time, the EU has decided to phase out all imports of Russian LNG by 2027, while the global market is filling up fast with new projects in the US, Qatar and Africa.
“Russia has competitive LNG on cost, but without access to markets and ships it is like building a train with no tracks,” says Arild Moe, Research Professor at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute. “On paper Russia could double LNG output by 2040 – but in practice, the next decade could see no new exports at all.”
About the report
The Outlook for Russian LNG is authored by James Henderson and Arild Moe, published as FNI Report No. 1/2025. The research was supported by a grant from the Norwegian Ministry of Energy.
Contact:
Arild Moe, Research Professor, Fridtjof Nansen Institute
Email: amoe@fni.no | Tel: +47 92 69 61 67
