FNI Policy Brief 1/2026. Lysaker, Fridtjof Nansen Institute, April 2026, 3 p.
Key points
- How negotiations are run affect whether outcomes are seen as legitimate
- Inclusive processes build the trust that makes agreement possible
- France's negotiation management strategy at COP21 offers practical lessons for how to successfully orchestrate multilateral negotiations
Summary
The 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen (COP15) is the defining cautionary tale of multilateral negotiation mismanagement. Despite years of preparation, enormous political attention, and the attendance of over 115 heads of state, Copenhagen ended in disarray. The outcome, the Copenhagen Accord, was rejected by a significant portion of states on the spot, with several delegations calling the process "undemocratic" and "illegitimate."
The root cause was procedural, not substantive. At a critical moment, the Danish Presidency convened a small, hand-picked group of approximately 28 countries to produce the final text, excluding most of the world's nations without their consent.
France spent years studying what went wrong in Copenhagen and designed COP21 specifically to avoid repeating those mistakes. The French Presidency committed publicly to three principles: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed; all parties are included; and transparency is upheld throughout.
The Paris Agreement was the product of a carefully designed negotiation process. Research shows that the French Presidency's decision to include all parties, listen to every delegation, and build agreement text from the ground up generated near-universal support for the final deal.
Recommendations
- Invest in bilateral listening
- Make inclusiveness visible in your meeting design
- Build agreement text from the bottom up
- Secure major-power alignment before the room
- Staff up for the governance costs
- Manage expectations
- Ensure smooth logistics
