The Circumpolar - Arctic geopolitics (podcast) May 15, 2026.
Is the war in the Iran really a windfall for Russia, or does it expose deeper vulnerabilities in Moscow's Arctic strategy? Our guest is Arild Moe, research professor at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute and co-author of a newly published book with Anna Korppoo at Edward Elgar discussing these topics, titled "Climate, Hydrocarbons and Sanctions in the Russian Arctic", about the assumptions underpinning Russian Arctic energy development and why they are starting to crack.
The conversation moves through several layers. Short term, Russia has gained from partial sanctions relief and higher prices. Longer term, the picture looks different. Long-distance energy supplies are increasingly seen as risky, foreign investment in Arctic megaprojects is harder to secure, and the LNG market is shifting in ways that may leave Russian Arctic gas without its expected niche. Arild and Serafima also discuss the shadow fleet and its environmental risks, the limited role climate concerns play in Russian energy planning, and the longer question of what European relations with Russia could eventually look like.
A measured, detailed conversation about an Arctic energy sector facing structural pressures that go well beyond the current war.
