The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion on the Arctic: From Cooperation to Conflict?

In Paul Midford, Jennifer Bailey, Katja Levy and Espen Moe (eds), Navigating East Asian Maritime Conflicts: Technological Change, Environmental Challenges, Global and Regional Responses. Palgrave Macmillan, 2024, pp. 127-150

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marks a further watershed in relations between the West and Russia, including in the Arctic. However, the hope remains that Arctic security relations are sheltered from the War in Ukraine, despite tension creeping northwards through both bellicose statements from Russia, the Finnish and Swedish accession to NATO, and fears of hybrid operations in the North. This chapter takes a look at the different political dynamics when it comes to state, or military, security in the Arctic, and how they have evolved since the beginning of 2022. It leans on a conceptual separation between so-called levels of analysis in international affairs, as well as Norway as a case study when examining the ‘national’ level, to further develop the way we conceive of Arctic security and geopolitics moving forward. Finally, this chapter compares some of these dynamics to those found in East Asia.

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