Comparative analysis and conclusions

In G. Bang, A. Underdal and S. Andresen (eds), The Domestic Politics of Global Climate Change. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2015, pp. 182-205.

We conclude by asking and answering three main questions. The first one is what we can learn from using our conceptual framework. Our conceptual framework proved useful in identifying and categorization of factors that have in fact influenced climate policy trajectories. For example the identification of veto players proved useful in finding actors able to block policies. However, our assessments of the strength of impact on policy trajectories typical have the formula of ordinal-level statements. Regradin the question on the expectation on trajectories, the expected trajectory fails by a wide margin to achieve the UNFCCC objectives. This is because most key actors are not able to decouple economic growth and population growt from rising emissions, but there are some positive exceptions. Regrarding the last question on the course of the future negotiations the picture is rather bleak. However there is some potential in the idea that some of these major emitters act together and form a winning coaltion. However, for this to happen strong leadership is neede and there are few indications that such coaltions will emerge in the short to medium term.